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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A non-tropical low pressure area located about 500 miles east-
northeast of Bermuda is producing winds to storm force and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is expected to move
west-southwestward over warmer waters during the next day or so, and
it will likely become a subtropical cyclone later today or on
Saturday near or to the northeast of Bermuda. Thereafter, the low
is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by
Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on this low
pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical
storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. A surface trough and a mid- to upper-level disturbance over the
western Gulf of Mexico are producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development before the disturbance moves
inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions
of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few
days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php