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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure area located about 500 miles east- 
northeast of Bermuda is producing winds to storm force and 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The low is expected to move 
west-southwestward over warmer waters during the next day or so, and 
it will likely become a subtropical cyclone later today or on 
Saturday near or to the northeast of Bermuda.  Thereafter, the low 
is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by 
Saturday night or Sunday.  Additional information on this low 
pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA 
Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical 
storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A surface trough and a mid- to upper-level disturbance over the 
western Gulf of Mexico are producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
marginally conducive for development before the disturbance moves 
inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of 
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions 
of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few 
days.  Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential 
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather 
Service Forecast Office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Cangialosi