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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave near the Windward Islands continues to produce a 
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This 
disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is expected to 
continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central 
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to 
limit significant development.  After that time, however, the system 
is forecast to move more slowly westward across the western 
Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for 
the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of 
this week.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and 
gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern 
Leeward Islands through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure located 
about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become 
better organized since yesterday, with increasing banding features 
near the center.  Environmental conditions are conducive for further 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a 
couple days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward 
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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