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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas, central 
and eastern Cuba, and the adjacent Atlantic waters are associated 
with a tropical wave.  This system is expected to move 
west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida today, over the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across the central Gulf on 
Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday.  
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for 
development of this system once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little 
better organized this morning.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system 
during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph 
over the tropical Atlantic.  By Friday and over the weekend, 
conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical 
cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Surface observations indicate that a weak low pressure area has 
formed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The associated shower 
and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and little 
additional development is expected before the system moves inland 
over Texas tonight or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Beven