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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
850 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas.
A trough of low pressure located over the Straits of Florida
continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty winds
across the Florida Keys, portions of southeast Florida, and
the northwestern Bahamas. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical storm
on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. Later
in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move
generally northeastward over the western Atlantic.
1. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast
Florida and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force
wind gusts are also possible across portions of the Florida Keys,
southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or so.
In addition, hazardous marine conditions are expected along
the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are
in effect. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are possible
along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and
early next week. See products from your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts for more details. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system today
has been canceled, but an aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 3 PM EDT today, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.