ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure area
centered about 175 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina,
has become better defined.  However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and the low has not yet
developed into a tropical depression.  Some additional development
is possible tonight as the low moves northward near or over portions
of extreme eastern North Carolina.  After tonight, development
appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds while the system
moves generally north-northeastward near the eastern United States
coast. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of eastern South
Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight.  In addition, dangerous
surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast tonight.  For more information, please see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. The remnants of Kirk are located about 750 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph.
The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little
better organized during the last several hours, however, the
system still appears to lack a closed circulation.  This disturbance
is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day
or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable
upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean Sea.  Interests in
the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this
disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over
the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a
tropical cyclone.  For more information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is currently centered about 950 miles
southwest of the Azores Islands, and it is forecast to meander over
the central Atlantic for the next day or so.  By Thursday or
Friday, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics while the cyclone moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch