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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
to the south and southwest of Bermuda are associated with a weak
trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form before the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States.  The disturbance is then forecast to
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized.  A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.  By the weekend, however, upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for development when the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven