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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over
the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has
become better defined during the day.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move
in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday.  Interests in
northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and
tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas
coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and
eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
Bahamas is associated with a trough of low pressure.  Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves northwestward or northward near Florida and
the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for tropical or subtropical development by the
weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the
western Atlantic.  Regardless of development, very heavy rain and
flooding is possible over portions of the Florida peninsula during
the next few days.  Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office for more information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake