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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nicole, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over the
central and southeastern Bahamas and adjacent western Atlantic
waters is associated with a surface trough that is interacting with
an upper-level low.  Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
significant development, but they could become more conducive for
tropical or subtropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday or
Wednesday when the system begins to drift northward or
north-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Bahamas during the next
day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Stewart