ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
420 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss findings of
the reconnaissance aircraft mission.

1. Updated:  Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the tropical wave located about 300 miles east of
Barbados does not have a closed surface circulation.  The system is
producing winds to near tropical storm force and the thunderstorm
activity continues to show signs of organization.  Conditions
are expected to be favorable for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Wednesday.
The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph, and is expected to pass over the Windward Islands on
Wednesday morning, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
late Wednesday and Thursday.

Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire,
Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult
products issued by your national meteorological service, which
could include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of
whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy
rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to
spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern
Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure that is drifting westward.  Upper-level winds are not
expected to be conducive for significant development before this
system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Brown