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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located about a thousand miles west-northwest of the
Azores, on Tropical Storm Julia, located offshore of the South
Carolina coast, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karl,
located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico.  Development of this system, if any, should be slow to
occur before it moves inland over Texas by Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

2. A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
today and move generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the
far eastern Atlantic.  Some development of this wave is possible
before conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Brennan