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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


200 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the
Leeward Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located between the southeastern Bahamas and the northeastern coast
of Cuba.  The low is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms mainly to its south and east, and upper-level winds
are not expected to be particularly conducive for development during
the next day or so while this system moves more slowly toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.  However, environmental conditions
could become a little more conducive for development over the
weekend or early next week while the system moves through the
Straits of Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause
flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola and eastern
and central Cuba during the next couple of days.  Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are also possible over portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days.  Interests in South Florida and
the Florida Keys should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance since some impacts, such as heavy rains and gusty winds,
could begin over weekend and continue through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. An area of disturbed weather is located over the northern portion
of the Gulf of Mexico.  Surface pressures in this area are high at
the moment, and little to no development of this system is expected
before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Berg

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