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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kay, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms location about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week as the low moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. A broad area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, but environmental
conditions are favorable for continued development during the next
several days.  A tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Brown