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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea continue to show
signs of organization, but there is still no evidence of a closed
surface circulation.  This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in
a couple of days.  The disturbance is expected to cause locally
heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight.  These conditions are also
spreading across Hispaniola, and should reach Jamaica and Cuba by
late Monday as the wave moves westward near 25 mph over the central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.  For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch