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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located over the central Bay of Campeche
about 200 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico is producing an area of
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The low is moving westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph
and is forecast to reach the coast of eastern Mexico on Monday.
Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, a tropical
depression is still likely to form later today or on Monday.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of
whether or not a tropical cyclone develops, areas of heavy rain are
expected over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday.
These rains could could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides, especially in areas of high terrain.  For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi