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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Joaquin, located near the central Bahamas.

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure over the central Atlantic about
850 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing winds of gale force.
Although shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased since
yesterday, environmental conditions are still forecast to be
conducive for the low to acquire more tropical characteristics
during the next day or so.  The system is likely to become a
tropical cyclone before upper-level winds, enhanced by Hurricane
Joaquin, are forecast to be too strong for further development by
Sunday. Information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although upper-level winds are not forecast to be conducive for the
next few days, some slow development is possible next week while the
system moves west or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Blake