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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 100 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico,
have continued to become gradually better organized, but there is
still no evidence that the low has a well-defined center of
circulation.  The low is expected to move northward at about 15 mph
during the next day or so, and it could still become a tropical
depression before it reaches the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula tonight.  Interests on the Baja Californian peninsula
should continue to monitor the progress of the low.  Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, moisture associated with this
disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico today and
Monday, and over portions of southern California and Arizona on
Monday and Tuesday.  These rains could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides, especially in mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Berg