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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

700 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea and extends northward across Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands, and continues over the Atlantic Ocean for several
hundred miles. Surface pressures are gradually falling across this
region and a low pressure system could form during the next day or
so.  This system could briefly acquire subtropical characteristics
tomorrow or on Thursday while the low moves west-northwestward to
northwestward.  After that time, development is not expected while
the disturbance moves north-northeastward and eventually merges with
another frontal system.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and possible flooding can be expected across the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Dominican Republic
tonight and Wednesday. For additional information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please consult products issued by your national
meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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