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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

800 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that a surface circulation could be
organizing near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic in
association with the area of disturbed weather near Hispaniola. This
system continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity, and
environmental conditions are favorable for the development of a
tropical depression or tropical storm today or Sunday. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the

This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward over or near
the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central Bahamas
on Sunday. Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to continue over
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today. Winds to tropical storm force and
heavy rains are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the central Bahamas through
Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico. Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical
storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

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