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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Caribbean:
Earlier data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicated that the circulation is becoming better
defined with an area of low pressure located over the central
Caribbean Sea. The aircraft also indicated the system is producing
winds of 35-40 mph to the north of its center. An additional
increase in organization in the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity could prompt the development of a tropical depression or
storm over the next day or so. Potential tropical cyclone advisories
could also be required as soon as this afternoon, and interests in
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system as tropical storm watches or warnings could become necessary.
The system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea over the next
several days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Western Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with
an area of low pressure area located a little more than 100 miles
northeast of Bermuda. In addition, satellite wind data suggest the
system is now merging with a nearby frontal zone as upper-level
winds increase over the system. Therefore, subtropical or tropical
development is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.