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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area 
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser 
Antilles has increased since yesterday.  Although environmental 
conditions are only marginally conducive, additional gradual 
development of this system is expected and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next few days.  The disturbance is 
forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest 
at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward 
Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located off the west coast of Africa 
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual 
development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived 
tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next 
few days. By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast 
to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. 
Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or 
so along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical 
Atlantic.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for some gradual tropical or subtropical development over the next 
several days while the system drifts generally eastward.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Brown