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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: 
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located 
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula is 
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this 
system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves 
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of 
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during the 
next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and 
the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan 
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula 
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas:
A weak surface trough located around 200 miles northeast of the 
central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity as it 
interacts with an upper-level trough. Surface pressures are 
currently high across the area, and significant development of this 
system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward 
over the next several days away from the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which 
will run until November 30.  Long-term averages for the number of 
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3, 
respectively.

The list of names for 2022 is as follows:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alex           AL-leks          Lisa            LEE-suh 
Bonnie         BAH-nee          Martin          MAR-tin
Colin          KAH-lihn         Nicole          nih-KOHL     
Danielle       dan-YELL         Owen            OH-uhn  
Earl           URR-ull          Paula           PAHL-luh 
Fiona          fee-OH-nuh       Richard         RIH-churd
Gaston         ga-STAWN         Shary           SHAHR-ee
Hermine        her-MEEN         Tobias          toh-BEE-uss 
Ian            EE-an            Virginie        vir-JIN-ee
Julia          JOO-lee-uh       Walter          WALL-tur
Karl           KAR-ull

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes 
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for 
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days.  The issuance 
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT.  After the 
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 
AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide 
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances 
of the Tropical Weather Outlook.  Special Tropical Weather Outlooks 
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular 
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone 
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and 
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all 
ongoing tropical cyclones.  In addition, a special advisory package 
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected 
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of 
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel 
watches or warnings.  It is used in lieu of or to precede the 
issuance of a special advisory package.  Tropical Cyclone Updates, 
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header 
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are 
available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information 
on NHC text products can be found at 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml, while more 
information about NHC graphical products can be found at 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml.

You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at 
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via 
Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued.  
Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is 
available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php.

Forecaster Brown/Bucci