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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Nicholas, located inland over southwestern Louisiana. 

1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in 
association with an area of low pressure located more than 500 miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, earlier 
satellite derived winds indicated the system also lacks a 
well-defined center. However, environmental conditions are still 
expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days.  This 
system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the 
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Shower activity remains poorly organized in association with a broad 
low pressure system located several hundred miles to the 
south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, 
and a tropical depression is still likely to form during the next 
day or two while the system moves north-northwestward to northward 
off the southeast U.S. coast.  Regardless of development, this 
system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and 
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week. Additional information on 
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. A tropical wave located just inland over Africa is expected to 
emerge off the west coast of Africa in the next day or so. 
Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat 
conducive for additional development while the system moves 
west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, 
WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North 
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin