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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri May 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low 
pressure area centered about 300 miles northeast of Bermuda have 
diminished somewhat over the past several hours, and the system has 
not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics.  However, any 
increase in organization would result in advisories being initiated 
on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward to 
west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda.  Subsequently, 
the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile 
environment by Saturday night or Sunday.  Additional information on 
this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by 
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a 
tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a 
well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has 
winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated 
shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase 
in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived 
tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the 
northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone 
advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon.  Regardless of 
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions 
of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday.  
Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding 
along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead 
to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this 
region.  Additional information on the rainfall and flooding 
potential can be found in products issued by your local National 
Weather Service Forecast Office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven/Papin