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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with a non-tropical 
low pressure system located about 600 miles southeast of Bermuda is 
poorly organized and displaced well east of the low-level center.
Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a 
subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the 
next day or so while the low meanders well to the southeast of 
Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days 
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of 
this system is possible late this week as it moves slowly 
northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Blake