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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical 
Depression Twenty-Two, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are 
becoming better organized. Earlier satellite-derived wind data 
indicated that this system does not yet have a well-defined center, 
but it is producing winds near tropical-storm-force to its east. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional 
development during the next day or two and a tropical depression or 
tropical storm is likely to form before the end of the week. This 
system is forecast move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through 
the weekend.  For more information on this system, please see High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A small low pressure system located just west of the coast of 
Portugal is embedded within a larger non-tropical low. Although 
showers and thunderstorms associated with the smaller low are 
showing signs of organization, the system will soon move inland 
over Portugal and further tropical or subtropical development 
is unlikely. The low is producing gale-force winds, and will likely 
bring gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain to portions of 
western Portugal today and tonight. For more information about 
potential hazards in Portugal, please see products issued by the 
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA). For more 
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Post-tropical cyclone Paulette is located several hundred miles 
north-northwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to move 
quickly southward for the next few days and then stall over 
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south or south-southwest 
of the Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could 
subsequently redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or 
early next week while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

4. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa by early Saturday. Some gradual development of the system 
will be possible thereafter while it moves generally 
west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued 
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued 
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the 
Atmosphere (IPMA) are available on the web at https://www.ipma.pt.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at 
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ 
metarea2

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Latto