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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on
Hurricane Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
western Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico are associated
with a surface trough and are showing some signs of organization.
This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited development.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development later in
the week, and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday
while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coast of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form in the
northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Azores in a day or two.  Environmental conditions are conducive
for some development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could
form by the end of the week while the low moves erratically over the
northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven