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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a few hundred
miles to the south of Bermuda are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States.  The system is then forecast to interact with a frontal
system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Shower activity has changed little in organization near a small
area of low pressure and tropical wave located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  In addition, recent
satellite-derived wind data and visible satellite images suggest
that the system may not have a closed surface wind circulation.
Some development of this system is possible during the next day or
two while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.  Upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg