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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles north of Bermuda.

1. A low pressure system located about 800 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles has become a little better defined since yesterday, but
most of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
displaced to the west of the center of circulation.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development during
the next day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea
on Friday.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary, and
interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of the
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A second area of low pressure is located about 800 miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are
expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation
when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this wave while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg