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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Visible satellite images indicate that the circulation associated
with the low pressure system located about 800 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands is becoming better defined.  This
disturbance is already producing winds to gale force, and if the
current development trend continues, a tropical storm could form
later today.  The system is expected to move northwestward or
north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean
during the next few days.  For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a
disturbance near the central and northwestern Bahamas.  There are
still no signs of a closed surface circulation, and conditions do
not appear conducive for significant development of this disturbance
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  However, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas today, and portions of the Florida peninsula on
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch