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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles has been moving slowly toward the
west-northwest. The circulation appears to be better defined today,
but the thunderstorm activity near the center remains poorly
organized. Conditions are still very favorable for a tropical
depression to form by Sunday or Monday while this disturbance moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest over the central Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola remains disorganized.  There are no signs of a
surface circulation, and conditions are not expected to be conducive
for significant development of this system while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

3. An area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf
of Mexico is devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are
not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken
further while it moves westward across the central Gulf of Mexico
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Avila