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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, located a
couple of hundred miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to
move quickly westward at about 20 mph.  Although the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains well organized, surface
observations indicate that the system still appears to lack a
closed surface circulation.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm
is likely to form later tonight or Tuesday morning.  An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Tuesday morning.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will
continue over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over
Jamaica tonight, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight.
Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea
should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.  For
additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch