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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, centered
about 275 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to
move quickly westward at about 20 mph.  Thunderstorm activity
associated with the wave remains organized, but the system still
appears to lack a closed surface circulation.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight.  An
Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to
investigate this system late this afternoon.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to
tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti through this evening.  Tropical storm conditions
are likely to occur over Jamaica by this evening, and could reach
the Cayman Islands overnight.  Interests in these areas and
elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown