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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Turks 
and Caicos Islands.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in 
association with an area of low pressure over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further 
development of this system during the next several days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early 
next week while it moves generally northward over the eastern Gulf 
of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western 
Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with 
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental 
conditions could become more conducive for development over the 
weekend, and a tropical depression could form early next week while 
the system moves generally northwestward over the central 
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
Satellite imagery indicates the remnants of former Tropical Storm 
Emily have become absorbed by an elongated area of low pressure 
located more than 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Tropical 
cyclone formation is not expected due to unfavorable environmental 
conditions while this system merges with a nearby frontal boundary 
over the north central Atlantic during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
early next week. Some slow development of this system is possible 
during the latter part of next week while the system moves westward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart