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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
favorable for further development of this system, and a short-lived
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds
over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms east of the center. While environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, a short-lived tropical
depression could form in the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
After that time, additional development is not anticipated since
upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
3. Near the Windward Islands (AL90):
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands,
shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since
yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and
a tropical depression could form by early next week while this
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across
the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions
of the Windward Islands during the next couple of days. Interests
in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
4. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located near the northwestern and
central Bahamas is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early
next week, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form.
Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
5. Near the coast of Africa:
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Bucci/Papin/Cangialosi/Brennan