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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions 
appear generally favorable for additional development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend 
while it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at about 10 
mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, 
upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and 
further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the 
Lesser Antilles are showing some signs of organization.  Although  
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further 
development, a tropical depression could form during the day or so 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central 
tropical Atlantic. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to 
become unfavorable for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
An area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an 
elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to 
the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of 
this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week 
as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the 
Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

4. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the central Bahamas 
is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, 
where a broad area of low pressure could form. Thereafter, some slow 
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression 
could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of 
Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Kelly/Brown