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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Recent satellite wind data, along with buoy and ship observations 
indicate the area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of 
Mexico has a broad but well-defined circulation with maximum 
sustained winds of about 35 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity 
associated with the low is also showing signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for additional 
development, and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical 
depression or storm is likely to form as soon as this afternoon. The 
system is likely to meander over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico 
through tonight but begin a slow southward motion on Friday. By 
this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
unfavorable for additional development as the system continues 
moving southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate the system later this afternoon. 

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over 
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional 
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi