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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located 
a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has diminished 
somewhat tonight. Environmental conditions are only marginally 
conducive for additional development during the next day or so as 
the system moves little before it is forecast to merge with the 
disturbance to its east by midweek. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico 
continues to produce general disorganized shower activity. This 
system is forecast to interact and merge with the disturbance off 
the southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek, and environmental 
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by 
that time.  A tropical depression is likely to form during the 
latter part of this week while the system moves slowly westward near 
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 

Forecaster Papin

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