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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are 
occuring on the east side of an elongated low pressure system 
located about 700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula.  Any improvement in the organization of 
the circulation would lead to the system being designated a 
tropical storm, and that is expected to occur later today or 
Saturday.  For more information on this system, please see 
High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Tropical Analysis and 
Forecast Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is located about 1300 miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The 
associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of 
organization, but are still mostly confined to the southeast of the 
center. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for 
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form over the weekend while the system moves generally 
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles 
off the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a tropical 
wave.  Gradual development of this system is expected during the 
next several days, and it could become a tropical depression early 
next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on 
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

Forecaster Cangialosi




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