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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos, located about 2000 miles 
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred 
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while moving 
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, near the coast of southwestern 
Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over 
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, 
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days, which could 
cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.  Interests in 
these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg

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