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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized this morning, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next day or so while the system moves northward at
5 to 10 mph.  By early next week, however, additional development
is not expected due to cooler waters and stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A small low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower activity.  Strong
upper-level winds are expected to limit development of this system
during the next couple of days while the low moves little, and
tropical cyclone formation is becoming less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast
of southeastern Mexico early next week.  Gradual development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves
west-northwestward just off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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