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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the 
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing showers and 
thunderstorms on its west side.  Some slow development of this 
system is possible during the next day or so before it likely 
merges with the larger disturbance to its east-southeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of 
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a 
trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are expected to 
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form toward the end of the week while the system moves 
slowly westward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 

Forecaster Cangialosi

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