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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad trough of low 
pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across 
the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in 
Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern 
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the 
progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has 
the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean 
coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of 
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop near southern Florida 
in a day or so. This system is then forecast to move northeastward 
near the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late 
this week and over the weekend. Although development into a tropical 
cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to  produce gusty 
winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the 
Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days.  For 
more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly