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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96):
Earlier today, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft  
investigated a broad area of low pressure located a couple of 
hundred miles east of the central Bahamas, finding that the system 
did not possess a well-defined surface circulation, but was 
producing winds around 40 mph on its northeastern side. Shower and 
thunderstorm activity persists, but the system only has limited time 
to develop into a short-lived tropical depression or storm over the 
next day or so as it moves slowly west-northwestward. By Tuesday, 
strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances for 
further development as the system turns northward away from the 
northwestern Bahamas. Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the 
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the 
system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph towards Central 
America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin