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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by 
Wednesday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive 
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while 
the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form east of the 
Florida peninsula late this week.  This system could acquire some 
subtropical characteristics this weekend while it moves generally 
northward.  Regardless of subtropical development, this low could 
bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf conditions to portions 
of the coastal Carolinas into the coastal Mid-Atlantic states this 
weekend.  Please see products from your local National Weather 
Service office for more details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart