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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located a little less than 1000 miles
east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally favorable for gradual development of this
system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the early part of this week. The system is expected
to move northwestward at about 15 mph during the next day or so, and
then turn northward over the central subtropical Atlantic by late
Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
2. Off the Carolina Coast:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a
trough of low pressure that recently emerged off the Carolina
coastline, and is currently located about 100 miles south of
Wilmington, North Carolina. Environmental conditions appear
generally favorable for some additional development over the next
day or two as the system gradually accelerates east-northeastward
into the northwestern Atlantic ocean. Afterwards, this system is
likely to merge with a frontal boundary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.