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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 27 2013 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. 1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW IS STILL PROBABLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH LAND OR MOVING OVER COLDER WATER BY THURSDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. 2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE WEEKEND...BUT THE LOW WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD COLDER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER BERG
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