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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023
An area of disturbed weather located well southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula became rapidly better organized
this morning. SSMIS microwave imagery at 1427 UTC showed that deep
convection had organized into a very well-defined band, with what
appeared to be a developing low-level center just to the north of
the convection. Since then, 1-minute visible GOES-18 has been very
helpful in confirming the development of a well-defined surface
circulation. Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E. The initial maximum sustained wind estimate
is highly uncertain, but is based on a 30 kt Dvorak current
intensity analysis from TAFB.
The depression appears to be quite small, and is therefore not being
well-resolved by most global models. The center of the cyclone
appears to be just north of a tight band of deep convection. Its
small size and an expected moderate shear environment could make the
cyclone susceptible to rapid changes in intensity that are difficult
to anticipate. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than
the model consensus for the next 48 h, most similar to the DSHP
model, but still shows only slight strengthening during that time
frame. After about 72 h, wind shear is expected to increase quickly,
which should cause the small cyclone to weaken. The system is
subsequently expected to dissipate into a trough after about 4 days.
The initial motion estimate is west at 12 kt. An extensive ridge
extending over most of the eastern North Pacific should keep the
depression on a similar heading for the next 4 days until the system
dissipates. Although the strength of the depression does not appear
to be captured well by the global models, they do appear to have
very reasonable track forecasts that are in good agreement with one
another. The initial NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
average-spread guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 13.9N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.3N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 14.7N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 14.9N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 14.3N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 14.0N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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