ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023 An area of disturbed weather located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula became rapidly better organized this morning. SSMIS microwave imagery at 1427 UTC showed that deep convection had organized into a very well-defined band, with what appeared to be a developing low-level center just to the north of the convection. Since then, 1-minute visible GOES-18 has been very helpful in confirming the development of a well-defined surface circulation. Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. The initial maximum sustained wind estimate is highly uncertain, but is based on a 30 kt Dvorak current intensity analysis from TAFB. The depression appears to be quite small, and is therefore not being well-resolved by most global models. The center of the cyclone appears to be just north of a tight band of deep convection. Its small size and an expected moderate shear environment could make the cyclone susceptible to rapid changes in intensity that are difficult to anticipate. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the model consensus for the next 48 h, most similar to the DSHP model, but still shows only slight strengthening during that time frame. After about 72 h, wind shear is expected to increase quickly, which should cause the small cyclone to weaken. The system is subsequently expected to dissipate into a trough after about 4 days. The initial motion estimate is west at 12 kt. An extensive ridge extending over most of the eastern North Pacific should keep the depression on a similar heading for the next 4 days until the system dissipates. Although the strength of the depression does not appear to be captured well by the global models, they do appear to have very reasonable track forecasts that are in good agreement with one another. The initial NHC track forecast is near the middle of the average-spread guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 13.9N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.3N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.7N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 14.9N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 14.3N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 14.0N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN
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