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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062023
900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023
 
During the past several hours, the area of low pressure the National
Hurricane Center has been monitoring offshore the southwestern coast
of Mexico has gradually become better organized on GOES-18 satellite
imagery.  Additionally, overnight microwave images indicated
improved curved banding over the south and east portions of the
cyclone.  Based on the overall improvement of the system's cloud
pattern and Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E.
 
Modest strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours or so 
while the cyclone remains over warm oceanic surface temperatures; 
however, moderate northeasterly shear is impinging on the north 
semicircle of the system.  By early next week, the depression 
should weaken rather quickly as it traverses a sharp decreasing sea 
surface temperature gradient and moves into a more stable air mass.  
The official forecast is based on a compromise of the HFIP, HCCA, 
and the IVCN intensity models. The majority of the guidance, 
including the global models, indicates the cyclone degenerating to 
a remnant low in 3 days, if not sooner.
 
The initial motion is somewhat uncertain but is estimated to be
northwestward or 310/12 kt.  The depression is located south of a
subtropical ridge extending from the Southern Plains of the United
States to the Baja California peninsula and eastern Pacific offshore
waters.  This mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone toward the
northwest during the next day or so.  Afterward, global models show
the western portion of the ridge eroding in response to a major
shortwave trough approaching the west coast of the United States.
As a result, the depression should turn toward the west-northwest
with a gradual reduction in forward speed early next week.  The NHC
track forecast lies near the HCCA and TVCE multi-model aids and
between the GFS and ECMWF global models.  Although the track
forecast is currently off the southwestern coast of Mexico, enough
uncertainty still exists that interests in the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 18.2N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 19.4N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 21.0N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 22.2N 113.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 23.4N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 24.4N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 25.0N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1200Z 25.6N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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