ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 During the past several hours, the area of low pressure the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico has gradually become better organized on GOES-18 satellite imagery. Additionally, overnight microwave images indicated improved curved banding over the south and east portions of the cyclone. Based on the overall improvement of the system's cloud pattern and Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. Modest strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours or so while the cyclone remains over warm oceanic surface temperatures; however, moderate northeasterly shear is impinging on the north semicircle of the system. By early next week, the depression should weaken rather quickly as it traverses a sharp decreasing sea surface temperature gradient and moves into a more stable air mass. The official forecast is based on a compromise of the HFIP, HCCA, and the IVCN intensity models. The majority of the guidance, including the global models, indicates the cyclone degenerating to a remnant low in 3 days, if not sooner. The initial motion is somewhat uncertain but is estimated to be northwestward or 310/12 kt. The depression is located south of a subtropical ridge extending from the Southern Plains of the United States to the Baja California peninsula and eastern Pacific offshore waters. This mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone toward the northwest during the next day or so. Afterward, global models show the western portion of the ridge eroding in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the west coast of the United States. As a result, the depression should turn toward the west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed early next week. The NHC track forecast lies near the HCCA and TVCE multi-model aids and between the GFS and ECMWF global models. Although the track forecast is currently off the southwestern coast of Mexico, enough uncertainty still exists that interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 19.4N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 21.0N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 22.2N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 23.4N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 24.4N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 25.0N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z 25.6N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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